Evidence That “Value Cars” are Two Years Young
A common question for me is, “What are the best value cars and what cars will give me the best bang for my buck?” It seems like a simple question, but this question is complicated by three factors:
- The car world is so diverse, general rules are difficult to make
- Current buying trends, not trends of car makers, ultimately determine which cars are a huge success or a miserable failure
- The meaning of “value” can be a personal choice and opinion
In an attempt to help you (and me when I buy my next car), I tried to do some analysis to figure out general answers to this question. Most websites subjectively claim that you should buy a used car when it is one or two year old. However, based on data, there is only one glaring rule that holds for almost any used car you might consider:
- Buy a car when it is two years young
The following graph best represents what happens after two years. This graph was generated using an automobile residual value tool such as the online tool from cars.com. This particular chart is for a mix of American, Asian, and European mid-sized sedans, but the data trends look similar for almost any car type.
You should notice the “knee” at the two year mark circled in red. This knee is created by a disproportionate amount of depreciation during the two years after a new car is purchased, followed by three years of relatively steady depreciation. Therefore, buy a used car when it is two years old.
But wait - there’s more! A perk of used cars is that when you buy one from a dealer, you have an opportunity to get a 12,000 mile extension on the warranty. Many dealers will offer this extension to their certified pre-owned cars (CPO). I used to believe this was a not-so-savvy way to try to charge more for a used car. As it turns out, CPO means the car has been inspected, cleaned, and has the warranty extended.
I also wrote a blog recently about buying your child’s first car. In that post, I made some recommendations for cars that are safe, reliable, and don’t cost a lot because they come from car manufacturers that don’t command a premium. Those cars are:
- 2006-2007 Hyundai Sonata, 4 cyl. engine (FWD)
- 2006 Kia New Optima 4-DR with Side Air Bags (FWD)
- 2004,2005,2007 Subaru Forester (AWD)
- 2004-2006 Mitsubishi Endeavor (FWD or AWD)
- 2004-2005 Lincoln Town Car (RWD)
But what if you don’t want any of those cars? Well, go back to what I said earlier. The final word — and you read it here first — is that you should buy a used car when it is two years old, still has some of the original warranty remaining, possibly has the original warranty extended, and has already suffered the biggest losses in value.
Do you think there are other rules for buying value cars? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!






